Progress & Warning Indicators

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The Progress and Warning Indicators are based on the Indicators outlined on Page 13 of the CoVID-19 Health Transition Team Report(PDF, 2MB).

Dashboard Data Links

Explanation of Progress/Warning Indicators as Displayed on the Dashboard

Progress Indicators

(P1) Daily Case Numbers over a 14-day Period

What is displayed: Daily number of cases. For cases where illness onset date is available, the illness onset date is used.

For asymptomatic cases or cases with no available onset date, the test collection date is used.

A white trend line is also shown: each white dot shows the average of the case numbers over the 5 preceding days.

How it's calculated: Metro Health conducts an interview with each COVID-19 case to determine their illness onset date (i.e. the first day their symptoms developed).

Additionally, Test collection date is available for every case reported to San Antonio Metro Health, and this date is used in instances where a case could not be interviewed or didn't have any symptoms even though infected.

The results for each day are tallied to show daily number of cases.

Goal: A sustained decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases for at least 14 days.

(P2) Testing Capacity

What is displayed: Daily specimen collection capacity vs. actual specimens collected daily.

The gauge shows what percentage of our need we are able to meet, by comparing daily specimen collection capacity against the actual specimens collected daily.

How it's calculated: Daily specimen collection refers to the total number of diagnostic tests that are collected in one day, summed across all specimen collection partners serving our county.

Specimen collection capacity refers to the max number of tests a facility can collect in a given day, summed across all specimen collection partners serving our county.

Goal: To have the ability to collect tests for all people with symptoms of COVID-19 and their close contacts.

(P3) Case and Contact Tracing Capacity

What is displayed: Two gauges are shown:

  1. The first shows the current case and contact tracing daily capacity: The maximum number of cases that could be processed and investigated (or ‘traced’) daily, given our resources and trained personnel.
  2. The second gauge shows the current daily capacity vs. our average daily need, expressed as a percentage.

How it’s calculated:

  1. The first gauge represents the daily case and contract tracing capacity based on the total number of trained investigators and personnel and the amount of time taken to investigate (or trace) a case.
  2. In the second gauge, the current daily case and contact tracing capacity is divided by the number of average daily cases over the past week (average daily cases= total of cases over past week divided by 7). This is expressed as a percentage of need met given our capacity.

Goal: Provide effective case and contact tracing to identify all close contacts of people diagnosed with COVID-19 and offer guidance and testing resources to those for whom it is indicated according to public health guidelines.

(P4) COVID-19 Patient Trends

What is displayed: The indicators included are

  • Number of patients hospitalized
  • Number of patients in the ICU
  • Number of patients on ventilators, due to COVID-19 – related complications

For each of these indicators, both the trend over the past 14 days as well as the current day’s numbers are shown.

How it’s calculated: The information is provided by the Southwest Texas Regional Advisory Council (STRAC), which collects and tallies the numbers daily across relevant hospitals and health care systems.

Goal: A prepared healthcare system that can safely care for all patients, including sufficient hospital capacity, workforce, and PPE for healthcare workers.

Warning Indicators

(W1) Average Case Rate

What is displayed: The weekly average number of cases per 100,000 population based on 7-day moving average.

As long as the rate is below 19, we are in the green zone; between 20 and 35 we are in the yellow zone, between 36 and 49 we are in the critical zone, and at 50 or above we are in the red zone.

How it’s calculated: The weekly average number of cases divided by the population of Bexar County multiplied by 100,000. The calculation is updated weekly.

Watch for: An increase in the weekly case rate.

(W2) Positive Lab Tests

What is displayed: The percentage of lab tests performed in the past week (7 days) that ended up being positive for COVID-19. This is shown as the previous week’s percentage as well as a bar graph that shows the weekly percentage for the past several weeks.

A warning is triggered if we start to see a consistent rise in the weekly percentage of total tests that are positive.

How it’s calculated: For each week when the test data come in, the total number of positive COVID-19 tests in that week is divided by the total number of tests conducted in that week.

Watch for: An increase in the percentage of tests that are positive for COVID-19.

(W3) STRAC Health System Stress Score

What is displayed: A composite index score that is a measure of the overall stress on the healthcare system. The score takes into account the availability and usage of personal protective equipment (PPE), ventilators, and staffed beds across relevant hospitals and health systems.

A warning is triggered if the stress score reaches the ‘High’ or ‘Severe’ levels.

How it’s calculated: The stress score is calculated and updated regularly by the Southwest Texas Regional Advisory Council (STRAC).

Watch for: An increase in indicators of health system stress such as reductions in personal protective equipment, hospital bed, or ventilator capacity.