Progress & Warning Indicators

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The Progress and Warning Indicators are based on the Indicators outlined on Page 13 of the CoVID-19 Health Transition Team Report(PDF, 2MB).

Dashboard Data Links

Explanation of Progress/Warning Indicators as Displayed on the Dashboard

Progress Indicators

(P1) Daily Case Numbers over a 14-day Period

What is displayed: Daily number of cases. For cases where illness onset date is available, the illness onset date is used.

For asymptomatic cases or cases with no available onset date, the test collection date is used.

A white trend line is also shown: each white dot shows the average of the case numbers over the 5 preceding days.

How it's calculated: Metro Health conducts an interview with each COVID-19 case to determine their illness onset date (i.e. the first day their symptoms developed).

Additionally, Test collection date is available for every case reported to San Antonio Metro Health, and this date is used in instances where a case could not be interviewed or didn't have any symptoms even though infected.

The results for each day are tallied to show daily number of cases.

Goal: A sustained decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases for at least 14 days.

(P2) Testing Capacity

What is displayed: Our current daily specimen collection (county-wide, for all known partners), compared to max specimen collection capacity.

The gauge shows our progress towards a goal of 8,200 tests/day.

How it's calculated: Daily specimen collection refers to the total number of diagnostic tests that are collected in one day across all partners serving our County.

Specimen collection capacity is calculated by determining the max number of tests each facility can collect in a given day.

Goal: The ability to collect tests for the virus in all people with symptoms of COVID-19 & their close contacts.

(P3) Case and Contact Tracing Capacity

What is displayed: Two gauges are shown:

  1. The first shows the current number of case investigators and contact tracing volunteers and personnel needed.
  2. The second gauge shows the current number of case investigators and contact tracing volunteers and personnel trained and available compared to the goal of 175 case investigators and contact tracers trained and available by September 2020.

How it’s calculated:

  1. In the first gauge, if the current number of available case investigators and contact tracers meets or exceeds the current need, then the gauge maxes out at 100% and appears green.
  2. In the second gauge, the current number of available contact tracers is compared to a maximum goal of 175. As more case investigators and contact tracers are trained and available, the gauge approaches the maximum of 175.

Goal: Effective case and contact tracing capacity to identify all close contacts of people diagnosed with COVID-19 and offer testing to those for whom it is indicated.

(P4) COVID-19 Patient Trends

What is displayed: The indicators included are

  • Number of patients hospitalized
  • Number of patients in the ICU
  • Number of patients on ventilators, due to COVID-19 – related complications

For each of these indicators, both the trend over the past 14 days as well as the current day’s numbers are shown.

How it’s calculated: The information is provided by the Southwest Texas Regional Advisory Council (STRAC), which collects and tallies the numbers daily across relevant hospitals and health care systems.

Goal: A prepared healthcare system that can safely care for all patients, including sufficient hospital capacity, workforce, and PPE for healthcare workers.

Warning Indicators

(W1) Doubling Time

What is displayed: The current number of days it is taking for the number of COVID-19 cases to double.

As long as the number is higher than 18 days, we are in the green zone. If the doubling time drops to 18 days or lower, a warning is triggered.

How it’s calculated: The daily number of cases over are inputted into appropriate formulas and equations traditionally used to calculate doubling that, which then output our current growth rate and doubling time. The calculations are updated weekly.

Watch for: A decrease in the number of days it takes for the total number of COVID-19 cases in our community to double (doubling time).

(W2) Positive Lab Tests

What is displayed: The percentage of lab tests performed in the past week (7 days) that ended up being positive for COVID-19. This is shown as the previous week’s percentage as well as a bar graph that shows the weekly percentage for the past several weeks.

A warning is triggered if we start to see a consistent rise in the weekly percentage of total tests that are positive.

How it’s calculated: For each week when the test data come in, the total number of positive COVID-19 tests in that week is divided by the total number of tests conducted in that week.

Watch for: An increase in the percentage of tests that are positive for COVID-19.

(W3) STRAC Health System Stress Score

What is displayed: A composite index score that is a measure of the overall stress on the healthcare system. The score takes into account the availability and usage of personal protective equipment (PPE), ventilators, and staffed beds across relevant hospitals and health systems.

A warning is triggered if the stress score reaches the ‘High’ or ‘Severe’ levels.

How it’s calculated: The stress score is calculated and updated regularly by the Southwest Texas Regional Advisory Council (STRAC).

Watch for: An increase in indicators of health system stress such as reductions in personal protective equipment, hospital bed, or ventilator capacity.